ANALYSIS: What the NDP Would Lose by Breaking Deal With Liberals

The NDP is facing pressure from the Conservatives to break its agreement with the Liberals and trigger an early election, and doing so would not leave many of its big agenda items on the table, a review of the deal shows.
Major pieces of legislation supported by the NDP have been adopted in the areas of dental care, child care, and energy transition, while the pharmacare bill is in the Senate after clearing the House of Commons in June.
The NDP has threatened to pull out of the agreement several times but the Liberal government managed to keep the deal.
Ahead of the new parliamentary session starting in mid-September, and with the deal extending until the end of the spring session of 2025, the partners have not said what area of the agreement they’ll focus on.
The deal has now been in place for nearly two and a half years, and the vast majority of elements in the agreement have been carried out.
Government House Leader Karina Gould, who manages inter-party issues, was asked by reporters on the sidelines of the recent Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax what her party needs to do to keep the NDP on board.
“We’ve signed the agreement till the end of June, so as far as I’m concerned, that’s something that has been signed and agreed to,” she said on Aug. 27. “And so I’m going to be working on that premise.”
Gould said there are still parts of the agreement that need to be accomplished and that her government would “keep pushing in that direction.” The minister added she is “fairly confident” that the “strong agreement” will survive until its expiry date.
The second theme of the supply and confidence agreement relates to “making life more affordable.” Most of the elements therein have been actioned, such as introducing the Early Learning and Child Care Act, launching the Housing Accelerator Fund, and providing a $500 top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit.
The major component of legislation passed to prohibit the use of replacement workers during a lockout or strike also became reality, with Bill C-58 receiving royal assent in late June.
It said Elections Canada’s “ability to deliver an election that Canadians trust could be threatened.” The electoral body instead proposed adding two days of advance voting.
Elections Canada said allowing people to vote anywhere within their district could lead to double voting. To prevent this, it plans to roll out electronic voter lists for the next general election.
In light of this exhaustive list, the NDP could pull out of its agreement with the Liberals, having obtained most of its demands. The choice could come down to calculating whether it is politically advantageous to break the deal to have an early election.
The NDP would not lose much on its agenda by breaking with the Liberals, but it could end up losing seats. A true test of its popularity will come with the Sept. 16 byelections, when it will defend a stronghold in Winnipeg and seek to unseat the Liberals in their stronghold of Montreal.